How Inter can defeat City

The battle will ultimately be won at the halfway line.

Inter meets Manchester City for the first time in history this Saturday in the UEFA Champions League Final in Istanbul, and Simone Inzaghi admits that the showdown with Pep Guardiola is the biggest test of his illustrious career.

Much of the focus in the build-up has centered around whether the Nerazzurri can stave off the threat of Erling Haaland — who’s scored one goal in his past seven matches— while the English media has glossed over the counterattacking peril that Inter is capable of unleashing.

After covering a few of Inter’s and City’s league matches this season I’ve been able to learn a little about both coaches and their respective tactics. So, without getting caught up mind games, let’s dive in, starting with Guardiola against Manchester United in the F.A. Cup Final.

FA Cup Final 2023, City v United

From the goal kick, City builds with a back three plus the keeper (Ederson) joining in. United stayed narrow in their press as City patiently crept up the pitch, inviting the opposing attackers to come towards them, before playing through them with diagonal distribution.

Undeniably, Ilkay Gündogan’s screamer in the 12th second helped dictate the tempo for the Cityzens. Should Inter not win the first-half kickoff then Inzaghi might opt to fatten up his low block. Incidentally, the fastest-ever UCL Final goal was hit by Paolo Maldini (52 seconds) in 2005.

Guardiola’s wingers were often sent high up the pitch to prevent Luke Shaw and Aaron Wan Bissaka from getting involved in the collective press, so Fred and Casemiro were occasionally dragged forward from central areas to peel out into wider spaces.

Whenever Haaland dropped deep to receive, Victor Lindelof was hauled forward as United attempted to remain resolute with Erik ten Haag’s 4–2–3–1, and Real Madrid chucked out a 4–3–3 in the semi-final. So with Inter’s 3–5–2 formation, will City reconfigure or stick to what they know best?

Is Inter capable of overcoming the strongest club side on the planet?

City v Inter

It’s all about width for Guardiola, and the same goes for Inzaghi who likes to defend deep in a compact 5–3–2. Inter is a side that thrives without the majority of possession, having had much less of it against Barcelona (34% average) and Bayern Munich (40%)) in the group stage, then Porto (33% away), Benfica (42%) and Milan (43%). Conversely, City enjoyed over 60% on average.

Inter defends in a compressed, often impenetrable low block of Brozovic-Calhanoglu-Barella in front of Bastoni-Acerbi-Darmian who are flanked by Dimarco and Dumfries. With this, Inter should be more effective than Real Madrid at blocking the corridor and the half-spaces.

Inter’s defensive advantages include height and big-game experience. Expect to see an epic skirmish as Haaland floats between Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni, the latter admitting “I watched a video of how Rudiger stopped Haaland and we will try to do the same.”

Perhaps the Euro 2020 winner, and Benemeata fans, will be heartened to know that just one of Haaland’s 52 goals this term was netted in his last seven matches. Then again, despite remaining scoreless against Real Madrid, the Norwegian superstar delivered 12 goals in the previous eight UCL matches, five of those shattering the net of Janis Blaswich in March.

box-to-box heavyweights exchange blows

The midfield war won’t be as one-sided as some expect. Hakan Calhanoglu’s conversion from attacking midfielder to deep operator has been a stunning success. Nicolo Barella has as much cunning as Gundogan, however, Marcelo Brozovic’s duel with Kevin De Bruyne could be the deciding factor.

Inter’s Escape Plan

The pattern of the game should be played in Inter’s defensive half. City’s 4–3–3 converts to a 3–2–4–1 in possession when inside the attacking half. Inter’s ball use inside their defensive half must be sharp. Haaland and De Bruyne will form the first part of the press while Jon Stones and Rodri will move up to prevent the Nerazzurri from playing through.

It’s all about pattern recognition. Can Inter move the ball laterally so that Inzaghi can deploy Bastoni to ping long balls to Edin Dzeko? This is something that Madrid couldn’t effectuate to alleviate the pressure of City’s elite pressing.

Importantly, Lautaro Martinez is the link between midfield and Dzeko. The Argentine is always ready to pick up on loose balls fired toward the halfway line. Expect Bastoni’s radar to hone in on the Bosnian.

Moving up the pitch will be like a chess match. By playing over the top of the squeeze, Dzeko can nod down to Lautaro to combat Pep’s three-man backline and wait for Barella to bomb forward. How long can Dias, Walker and Akanje work together to keep these kinds of counterattacks under control?

Andre Onana has a few options to kick to with four very distinctive targets. After Dzeko, there’s Denzel Dumfries and Federico Dimarco on the wings, then Barella if he can find space. Onana must make the pitch as wide as possible. This is paramount so that City can’t overload through the narrow spaces if they win the ball back.

petrol in the tank

Should Dzeko start then Romelu Lukaku will come on at the hour mark while Henrik Mkhitaryan, if fit, will bolster the middle of the pitch. If Mkhitaryan starts over Brozovic, then expect Barella to play more as a hard-hitting midfielder.

ten good minutes could be enough

Inspired by West Ham’s second-rate performance against Fiorentina, it might only take a short period of ascendancy for Inter to hit the scoreboard.

The Nerazzurri shouldn’t be underestimated despite OPTA’s 26% winning equation for the Italians. While City hasn’t lost a game in this year’s competition, Inter has conceded less than one goal per game under Inzaghi’s tenure (64% win ratio).

No one has more assists than Dimarco in this UCL campaign and De Bruyne is the only playersthat’s delivered more crosses. Bastoni has produced more accurate open-play crosses (12) than anyone else. Inter accrued the most shots in Serie A this season.

City’s supreme defence has conceded just five times in twelve UCL matches with seven clean sheets to Inter’s eight. Small wins.

no home advantage at the Ataturk

City’s domination against big clubs in the Premier League was apparent, however, they won just once away from home against top nine sides.

Another point of reference is that Brentford beat City twice this season while playing the 3–5–2, Thomas Frank’s backline well equipped to stave off Guardiola’s “WM” formation.

The advantage for Guardiola was playing the FA Cup Final a week ago which allowed his players to adapt to the big game mindset, but Inzaghi has laid eyes on that dress rehearsal against United.

Never underestimate Inzaghi, who once scored four goals in a Champions League preliminary. While not as prolific as brother Pippo on the pitch, he knows his way to goal and, after losing his first cup final as coach, has won seven in a row.

Let’s not sugarcoat it, City is the favourite. Who wouldn’t be with that much State-driven cash? But will Inter be ambitious? Inter’s ability to do the unexpected will be a thorn in the side of Guardiola. With twenty knockout games played at Inter, Inzaghi’s lost just once.

The key battles are out wide and on the halfway line. I’ll be covering the match live for Flashscore.