The Serie A Fat Lady
You are readying the original article, published on May 15th, 2021. Click here for the updated edit.There’s just one relegation spot left and four possible victims.
It’s Adolfo Gaich! Benevento with the win over Juventus. The Stregoni move up to twenty-nine points, seven more than Cagliari, and are all but assured of safety.
That was Match Day 28 of Serie A. Even I thought Benevento would go on to survive with Cagliari and Parma looking woeful — the two clubs with the worst winless streaks of the campaign.
Fast forward to Match Day 37 and it’s Cagliari (36 points) who has a five point lead over eighteenth-placed Benevento with just two more rounds to go. Oh how the tables have turned.
Just two wins in twenty-two matches for Pippo Inzaghi’s Benevento. And to make matters worse, Spezia and Torino hold a four point advantage over his side.
ma non è finita finché non canta la signora grassa (said no Italian ever)
But it’s not over until the Fat Signora sings, and Benevento might have to unleash those tuckshop-lady arms and get swinging before they end up like Matrona Parmigiana and Cicciona Crotone, singing for their supper in Serie B.
Behold the Serie A standings and let’s also analyse the Head to Heads (H2H).
Now take a look at the games that matter in the final two rounds.
In 2019/20, Benevento versus Crotone was first against second in Serie B. Now it’s 18th vs 19th in Serie A.
Benevento must take all three points from this encounter however Crotone has earned the “dragging everyone down with them” reputation this season, defeating relegation rivals Spezia 4–1,Torino 4–2, Parma twice 2–1 and 3–4 as well as Benevento in the reverse fixture in January which ended 4–1.
Spezia hosts Torino and both clubs have thirty-five priceless points, four more than Benevento. But points will be dropped here and Nicolas Viola’s men need to be ready to pounce.
If Spezia can get a win over Torino then they ensure their status in Serie A, leaving the Granata behind to either get a win over Lazio on Tuesday-or park the pullman against Benevento in the final round.
Cagliari are now six games undefeated after losing four straight. In the past five rounds only Inter Milan and Napoli have been in better form. The Sardinians now face up to a Milan side that have won three consecutive and are fresh off an away 0–7 win over Torino.
Things look ok for Benevento on Match Day 37 provided that Filippo Inzaghi gets the win over Serse Cosmi. If Benevento loses this match then it’s lights out, the fat lady humming away while she delivers the final calcio in faccia.
There’s also a potential spanner in the works next Tuesday — Match Day 25’s Lazio v Torino catch-up game. Even a point for Torino is a second nail in the Benevento coffin. A Lazio win would make it interesting come Match Day 38.
Assuming that Cagliari, Torino and Spezia are equal on 36 points at this stage, and Benevento has 34, it could come down to the Head to Heads (H2H).
HEAD TO HEAD — who rules who?
In a previous article regarding relegation, we answered the question “how does Serie A rank teams that finish level on points?” But here’s a timely reminder.
The deciding tie-breakers in Serie A are as follows :
Head-to-head points
Head-to-head goal difference
Goal difference
Higher number of goals scored
Playoff at neutral venue if relevant for deciding champion, relegation or participating in a European league, otherwise by draw.
Now I’ll put on my H2H thinking cap.
Torino and Spezia ended 0–0 in Turin and the two sides meet this weekend, so that H2H is undecided. Torino and Benevento ended 2–2 in Campania and they play on the final day! Is there a late twist right at the end of the season? That’s also undecided!
Torino and Cagliari has a win each and are equal on goals. So it will come down to overall goal difference (Torino F48:A64 for -16) (Cagliari F43:A58 for -15) and then if that is even we go to the highest number of goals (Torino).
Cagliari and Benevento. The results were Benevento 1 Cagliari 3, and Cagliari 1 Benevento 2. So Cagliari won this H2H.
Cagliari and Spezia. The results were Spezia 2 Cagliari 1 and Cagliari 2 Spezia 2, so Spezia has the H2H.
Benevento vs Spezia — more bad news for Super Pippo. Spezia 1 Benevento 1 and Benevento 0 Spezia 3 sees Spezia winning the H2H.
Let’s wrap this up
Roma is gunning for three points in an effort to achieve Europa League qualification and Spezia will have to repeat the heroics of January’s Coppa Italia win over the Giallorossi.
Of course, this analysis will be rendered useless should, on Match Day 37, the Sharks do to the Witches what they did to the Gialloblu of Hellas Verona (2-1 win) a couple of days ago, and therefore cart the 2019/20 Serie B winners back down to the smaller pond.
One thing is for sure — Cagliari, Torino and Spezia fans have suddenly all become Crotone supporters for this weekend.
Will Serie A’s fat lady sing Benevento a dramatic farewell this weekend?
All aboard the Hypothetical Express, Love Serie A!
